AC Milan host Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night. The Reds have long secured the top spot in the group but Milan has it all to play for. They sit one point behind 2nd spot and a win would give them a chance of progression or seal Europa League football at the very least. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 3-2 at Anfield on matchday one.
Milan Form
Despite two defeats in their last four matches, Milan sits top of Serie A. After 4-3 loss at Fiorentina saw them 3-0 down after an hour without their first choice center-backs. A shock 3-1 home defeat to Sassuolo followed but they’ve bounced back to win 3-0 at Genoa and 2-0 at home to Salernitana after scoring twice in the opening 18 minutes.
In the Champions League, Milan lost their first three matches and looked dead and buried. A 1-1 home draw with Porto on matchday didn’t help matters but they won 1-0 in Madrid against Atletico to give themselves a shot at progression.
Milan Team News
Milan is without Simon Kjaer at center-back after a serious knee injury. Club captain Alessio Romagnoli will come in alongside Fiyako Tomori. Stefano Pioli left Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the bench for the whole match over the weekend to ensure he is fit to face Liverpool. Olivier Giroud and Ante Rebic are set to be missing in the attack.
Davide Calabria is a doubt at right-back whilst young forward Pietro Pellegri is set to miss out. Junior Messias should return to start on the left after three goals in recent weeks.
Milan Motivation
Anything less than a win and Milan will be eliminated from the Champions League. They need to match Atletico Madrid’s result to finish at least third and to drop into the Europa League. A win would see them qualify if Porto fails to beat Atletico at home.
Motivation to progress is extremely high after so long without Champions League involvement.
Liverpool Form
Liverpool is in excellent form. They have lost once in 30 matches and that was against Real Madrid. Their last 12 league matches have seen the side score 2+ goals in 11 of those.
After a shock 3-2 away loss at West Ham, Klopp’s team has bounced back well. They thrashed Arsenal 4-0 and beat Porto 2-0 despite resting players. Another 4-0 win followed this time against Southampton before winning 4-1 at Everton in the derby. Their most recent match saw a 94th-minute winner from Divocki Origi to win 1-0 at Wolves.
Liverpool Team News
Liverpool has secured the top spot and is sure to make any changes to their starting XI. Neco Williams, Ibrahima Konate, and Kosta Tsimikas could all start in defence although Joe Gomez is still absent.
James Milner and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain look like certain starters in midfield and Tyler Morton could be set for another chance having played well against Porto on matchday 5. In attack, Roberto Firmino is injured and both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are due for rests. Divocki Origi could start as well as Takumi Minamino, two players who need to find top form before the AFCON.
Liverpool Motivation
The Reds will be motivated by sporting integrity and not allowing Milan an easy win which could lead to them qualifying for the next round. However, Klopp has to rest players and take care of his interests.
Liverpool would be very happy to draw this match away from home and to finish the group stage unbeaten.
Key Stats
AC Milan have won 16 of their last 21 Serie A matches (D3, L2)
Milan have scored in their last 17 Serie A matches
Milan are winless in their 2 UCL home matches this season (L1, D1)
Liverpool have lost 1 of their last 30 matches
LFC have scored 2+ goals in 11 of their last 12 PL matches
Liverpool have won all 5 CL group matches this season (15-5 aggregate)
Verdict
This match is tough to call because of all the rotation expected from Liverpool. Both teams should score and Milan has every chance of winning this one.
Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.58
Value Bet: AC Milan win and both teams to score at 3.60
Correct Score Tip: Milan 2-1 Liverpool at 9.00
