PSG host Barcelona at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night in the UEFA Champions League. The home side hold a 4-1 first leg advantage and will be hoping to avoid a repeat of 2017’s crazy Barcelona comeback over two legs after trailing 4-0 after the first game. Both sides sit 2nd in their domestic leagues but are in good form. Neymar is hoping to return to face his former club having been one of the heroes for Barca in the 2017 comeback.
PSG Form
Since taking over, Mauricio Pochettino has done a good job. The side have won 12 of his 15 matches in charge with two defeats and a draw. After a shock 3-2 loss at Lorient in late January, PSG won five matches in a row including smashing Barcelona 4-1 at the Nou Camp. They followed that up with a complacent 2-0 home loss to Monaco.
Although they have won their three subsequent Ligue 1 matches, PSG sit 2nd in the table with Lille two points clear and Lyon just one point behind in 3rd place with ten matches left to play. In their last match, they beat Brest 3-0 away in the Coupe de France as Kylian Mbappe scored twice.
PSG Team News
The big question mark for this match is over the inclusion of Neymar. He has resumed training and will desperately want to feature after his groin injury. The most likely outcome is that the Brazilian will play some minutes as a substitute.
Colin Dagba and Angel Di Maria both missed the first leg but are back for this one but Moise Kean has COVID-19 and will miss out. Pochettino may decide to go with an extra midfielder in this match to protect his side’s lead with Julian Draxler instead playing on the left.
PSG Motivation
PSG will be very motivated for this match but may have trouble knowing how to approach it. An early goal would mean that Barcelona need to score four to force extra time. Pochettino could look to be solid and wait for Barca to open up and leave space for PSG to counter attack.
A draw would be perfectly fine and the coach knows his side are in a big fight for the league title so he may withdraw someone like Mbappe in the final 15 minutes if the tie is completely over. PSG will still have La Remontada (“The Comeback”) in their minds from 2017 when a 4-0 first leg win over Barcelona was overturned in a 6-1 defeat. Neymar scored twice for Barcelona that night.
Barcelona Form
Barcelona have been in top form in La Liga of late with 13 wins and three draws in their last 16 matches. With Atletico Madrid dropping points, Barca are now just two points off the summit.
In the cups, Barcelona had some setbacks after losing the Spanish Super Cup in February to Athletic Bilbao, then 2-0 away to Sevilla in the Coppa del Rey semi-final 1st leg and then the 4-1 mauling at home to PSG.
Having drawn 1-1 at home with Cadiz after the PSG game, results have been good. Ronald Koeman has switched to a back three and beaten Sevilla 2-0 away in La Liga and then 3-0 at home after extra time to reach the Coppa del Rey final. In their last match, Barcelona won 2-0 at Osasuna.
Barcelona Team News
Ansu Fati and Philippe Coutinho remain injured for Barcelona in attacking areas and Sergi Roberto is absent at right back. Gerard Pique was rushed back for the first leg after a knee injury but has suffered a recurrence and misses this match.
Probably the biggest question or Koeman is whether he sticks with the 3-5-2 shape of recent matches. He moved to a back four at half time against Osasuna but the back three has made them look more solid and may suit Barca against the likes of Mbappe.
If a 3-5-2 is used then Koeman has to decide whether he can afford to start Antoine Griezmann up front. It’s more likely he will leave the Frenchman on the bench in favour of the speed of Ousmane Dembele alongside Lionel Messi, as the coach did twice against Sevilla.
Barcelona Motivation
Barcelona will try everything to progress but this isn’t the side of 2017 that had MSN (Messi-Suarez-Neymar) as their front three. This Barca side will likely play 3-5-2 and hope for Messi magic to get them a goal in-front and cause some panic for PSG.
Realistically, a face-saving good performance with a draw or narrow win would probably be accepted right now by Koeman. More focus is arguably on La Liga seeing as that is realistically winnable. If Barca are leading in this match, expected to see their Dutch coach remove a defender and introduce Martin Braithwaite or Griezmann and switch to a 4-3-3.
Key Stats
PSG have won 6 of their last 8 home CL matches (L2)
PSG have seen over 2.5 goals in 15 of their last 19 home CL matches
Barca have lost their last 2 CL matches 3-0 and 4-1 (both at home)
Barcelona have won 5 of their last 6 away CL matches
Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away CL matches
6 of the last 7 meetings between these sides have seen over 3.5 goals
Prediction
This is a difficult match for PSG in terms of how they approach it. Barcelona have to be measured in their approach with their own defensive issues and the threat posed by PSG. A narrow home win is probably the most likely outcome although this PSG side is known for their complacency. A score draw could be the best bet to take.
Best Bet: Draw at 4.25
Value Bet: Draw with goals at 4.35
Alternative Bet: PSG to win by 1 goal at 4.40
Alternative Bet: Mbappe and Messi to both score anytime
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